Distance, Scoring, & What Actually Separates the Best

Introduction

With the ball-change discussion intensifying and conversations about the impact of distance dominating discussions in the clubhouse, this article distils the key findings from Mark Broadie’s 2023 analysis of distance and performance on the PGA TOUR to help inform the debate.

Broadie’s central move is methodological: he disentangles genuine performance change from the fact that courses have got longer over time to measure which elements of performance impact scoring the most. Observed scoring has improved by roughly 0.43 strokes per decade, but because course yardages have also increased (about +40 yards per decade), some of the underlying improvement is hidden. Holding yardage constant, the data indicate scoring would have fallen by around 0.60 strokes per decade. This “fixed‑yardage” lens is then used by Broadie, to attribute how much of the improvement comes from driving, approach play, short game, and putting, and identify how much each skill domain contributes to scoring.

In short, the paper is not arguing that distance alone explains everything; it is asking how much each skill domain contributed once you strip out the moving target of course length.

Scoring: The True Decline, Once You Fix Yardage

When yardage is held constant, the −0.60 strokes/decade improvement can be evaluated across shot categories. Driving accounts for about −0.26 strokes/decade (43% of the total gain). Approach play and putting each contribute −0.18 strokes/decade. Short game is broadly flat, hovering around +0.02 strokes/decade. The headline therefore isn’t that “distance has solved golf,” but that progress is broad‑based, with driving the single largest slice of the long‑run scoring gains, and non‑driving skills still responsible for the majority.

What Separates the Best Across a Season?

Looking season‑long at the top‑40 players by Strokes Gained: Total clarifies what separates elite scorers from the field. On average over the ShotLink era analysed, their edge breaks down as Driving ~28%, Approach ~36%, Short Game ~17%, and Putting ~19%. Crucially, the share coming from driving has been rising, by roughly 4.5% per decade, while the approach share has drifted down by around 2.5% per decade.

Why? Because the distance advantage of the best scorers has grown faster than the gap for the simple “longest drivers” cohort. In the data, the top‑40 scorers increased their distance edge on the field by about +0.9 yards per decade, whereas the top‑40 longest drivers only widened by about +0.4 yards per decade. Elite scoring, in other words, has leaned into distance as part of a more complete advantage.

What Winners Do in the Week They Win

The anatomy of a winning week looks different from the anatomy of a winning season. In the week a player wins, the spike in Strokes Gained is dominated by putting (~34%) and approach (~32%), with smaller shares from driving (~18%) and short game (~16%). Importantly, these fractions have not shifted materially over time (each changes by less than ~2 percentage points per decade, with no statistically significant trend). That squares with golfing intuition: winners typically ride a hot putter and/or elite iron play on the week, while driving distance is comparatively stable week‑to‑week.

When Length Pays More

To measure whether some venues reward length more than others, Broadie regresses players’ SG: Total at a course on their season‑long driving distance. The resulting slope (strokes gained per extra yard of distance) acts as a “length premium” index. Courses vary substantially on this metric. Augusta National shows a slope around 0.070 (11th out of 69 courses in the sample), while Harbour Town sits near 0.023 (61st/69). Club de Golf Chapultepec tops the list at roughly 0.089, whereas Cog Hill is among the least distance‑sensitive at about 0.004. When these course‑level slopes are plotted against course yardage, the relationship is positive: longer courses reward long hitters more. That finding runs against the idea that “adding yardage neutralises power”; in fact, course lengthening tends to magnify the payoff to length.

The Distribution of Shots: Less myth, More Measurement

If modern golf had truly become “driver‑wedge,” we would see a rising share of approaches from the 50–150 yard range and a falling share from mid‑to‑long distances. The data don’t support that simplification. Across 2004–2022, approach‑shot distances are remarkably stable; in fact, the 50–150 yard bucket declined slightly (about −0.18 shots per round per decade). The most noticeable distributional changes are on the greens: there are more putts from 0–2 feet (roughly +0.43 putts/round per decade) and fewer from 3–5 feet (about −0.36 per decade). That pattern is consistent with improved leave patterns and/or green conditions, but it does not imply a wholesale collapse of approach play into wedges.

Beyond Tech: What Moves Measured Driving Distance

Several factors push measured driving distance up or down independent of pure equipment or speed training.

Hole mix and strategy

Drives on many 350–450 yard holes are intentionally shorter due to doglegs and lay‑back strategies. The share of 350–450 yard holes has declined by about 2% per decade, nudging measured distance upwards. Strategy has also shifted on drivable par‑4s: at Riviera #10, the “go‑for‑it” rate climbed from about 36% in 2004 to 97% in 2022; across sub‑350y par‑4s more generally, “go” rates increased by roughly 11% per decade. Both trends raise measured driving distance and alter second‑shot distributions.

Demographics

Distance tends to drop by around 5 yards per additional 10 years of age. Over the period studied, the average TOUR age fell by roughly 1.8 years per decade, and average height ticked up slightly (≈+0.2 inches per decade). At the player‑level regression, the coefficients imply about −0.41 yards per year of age and +12.4 yards per additional foot of height, small per‑player effects that nonetheless influence the aggregate.

Set‑up and environment

Median rough height declined by about 0.6 inches per decade, although the average rough penalty (shots from rough vs fairway) stayed roughly unchanged. Wind, elevation change, and fairway firmness also matter: downwind conditions, downhill holes, and firmer fairways all increase measured distance; soft fairways can reduce it by around ten yards relative to firm conditions on otherwise similar holes.

Distance Trends with Robust Controls

To estimate the underlying trend in “distance potential,” Broadie models all drives that finish in the fairway on holes ≥450 yards, excluding high‑altitude and high‑wind cases, and controlling for age, height, wind, elevation change, fairway firmness, and hole‑level recovery/penalty environments. The signs and magnitudes align with intuition: older players hit it shorter; taller players longer; downwind and downhill add yards; soft fairways subtract materially. After applying these controls, driving distance increases by around 16.9 yards from 2004 to 2022, or about +6.8 yards per decade. Without controls, the raw trend is roughly +8.2 yards per decade, implying that about one‑sixth to one‑fifth of the apparent rise reflects changing demographics and set‑ups rather than underlying speed, technique or equipment.

Why This Matters for the Distance Debate

Three themes stand out:

First, performance gains are broad‑based: driving explains the largest slice of long‑run scoring improvement, but approach play and putting together account for more than half of the progress.

Second, the season‑long competitive advantage has tilted modestly toward driving, not because everyone became bombers, but because the best scorers increased their relative distance edge.

Third, course lengthening doesn’t neutralise power; it amplifies it. Meanwhile, the distribution of approach shots is stable, and winning weeks continue to hinge on the high‑variance domains of putting and approach, not on one‑off distance spikes.

For policymakers, coaches and fitters, the implication is practical. Any equipment or ball intervention will interact with a moving ecosystem: course set‑ups, player demographics, optimisation practices, and strategy evolve together. Broadie’s controlled estimates suggest that even after accounting for those factors, distance potential has been trending upward by roughly seven yards per decade. That figure is a useful anchor for anticipating the likely scale, and limits, of any change attributed solely to the ball.

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